Relatlimab

Immunocore reports second quarter financial results and provides a business update KIMMTRAK® (tebentafusp-tebn) net revenues of $115.9 million in Q2 2026, growing by 18% year-over-year Enrollment in Phase 3 TEBE-AM trial for previously treated advanced cutaneous melanoma nearing the target of 540 patients – Data could come as early as end of 2026 Oral presentation of five-year overall survival data showing KIMMTRAK doubles likelihood of being alive at five years for patients with HLA-A*02:01 positive metastatic uveal melanoma Promising Phase 1 brenetafusp monotherapy clinical activity in heavily pretreated HLA-A*02:01-positive patients with advanced melanoma, presented at ASCO, supports selected dose for Phase 3 PRISM-MEL-301 trial in first-line advanced melanoma Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $880 million as of June 30, 2026 Conference call today, August 6 at 8:00 AM ET, 1:00 PM BST (OXFORDSHIRE, England & RADNOR, PA. & GAITHERSBURG, MD., US, 6 August 2026) Immunocore Holdings plc (Nasdaq: IMCR) (“Immunocore” or the “Company”), a commercial-stage biotechnology company pioneering and delivering transformative immunomodulating medicines to radically improve outcomes for patients with cancer, infectious diseases and autoimmune diseases, today announced its financial results for the first half ended June 30, 2026, and provided a business update. "The five-year overall survival data for KIMMTRAK underscores the lasting impact of our medicine for patients with metastatic uveal melanoma and reinforces our confidence in the potential of our platform," said Bahija Jallal, CEO of Immunocore. "With enrollment in our Phase 3 TEBE-AM trial nearing target completion and continued progress across our pipeline, we remain focused on our mission: delivering innovative transformative medicines to improve outcomes for patients with serious diseases." Second Quarter and First Half Highlights (including post-period) Financial Results For the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, total net product revenue (or ‘net sales’) arising from the sales of KIMMTRAK was $115.9 million, compared to $98.0 million for the same period in 2025. Q2 2026 sales were $74.9 million in the United States, $34.1 million in Europe, and $6.9 million in international regions. The increase in net product sales was primarily due to increased volumes in the United States and international regions. Research and development (R&D) expenses for Q2 2026 were $73.9 million, compared to $69.0 million for Q2 2025. This increase was primarily due to advancement of our clinical programs, including our three Phase 3 studies. Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses for Q2 2026 were $43.9 million, compared to $42.8 million for Q2 2025. Net loss for Q2 2026 was $0.8 million ($0.02 loss per share) compared to $10.3 million ($0.20 loss per share) for Q2 2025. Net income for the six months ended June 30, 2026, was $12.2 million ($0.23 income per share) compared to a net loss for the six months ended June 30, 2025, of $5.3 million ($0.11 loss per share). Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $880.2 million as of June 30, 2026, as compared to $864.2 million as of December 31, 2025. The Company expects to pay, in the second half of 2026, approximately $120 million in sales-related rebate accruals. KIMMTRAKThe Company’s lead product, KIMMTRAK® (tebentafusp), is approved in 39 countries and has been launched in over 30 countries globally to date for HLA-A*02:01 positive people with unresectable or metastatic uveal melanoma (mUM). KIMMTRAK continues to be the standard of care in all major markets where it is launched. The Company sees three key growth areas in the fifth year since the launch of KIMMTRAK as it plans to expand patient reach, including continued US community and global market penetration in mUM, the potential expansion into 2L+ advanced cutaneous melanoma (CM), and the potential expansion into adjuvant uveal melanoma. Metastatic uveal melanoma KIMMTRAK net product sales were $115.9 million and $222.6 million for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, representing increases of 18% and 16% respectively, as compared to the same periods in 2025.17% year-over-year quarterly sales growth in the United States with mean duration of treatment of 14 months.21% year-over-year quarterly sales growth combined in Europe and International, driven by increased demand.Five-year overall survival (OS) data, from the Phase 3 trial of KIMMTRAK in patients with unresectable or mUM, were presented at the AACR 2026 meeting, representing the longest follow-up reported for any T cell engager in a solid tumor.KIMMTRAK doubled the likelihood of being alive at five years with an OS rate of 16% versus 8% in the control arm (HR 0.67), and a median OS of 21.6 vs. 16.9 months, respectively.The OS benefit with KIMMTRAK was observed regardless of known baseline characteristics including poor prognostic factors (high tumor burden; elevated lactate dehydrogenase [LDH]) or tumor location.Data also confirmed OS benefit was primarily driven by KIMMTRAK rather than subsequent therapies. 2L+ advanced cutaneous melanoma Enrollment in the registrational Phase 3 TEBE-AM trial, evaluating tebentafusp as monotherapy, and in combination with pembrolizumab, versus a control arm in patients with previously treated advanced CM, is nearing the target of 540 patients. The trial is event driven and topline data could come as early as the end of 2026.There is great unmet need in second- and later-line CM, with no therapy having shown an OS improvement post checkpoint inhibitors in a randomized clinical trial to date. The Company estimates there are up to 4,000 previously treated advanced HLA-A*02:01 positive CM patients in the US and Europe. Adjuvant uveal (or ocular) melanoma The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) continues to expand the site footprint of the Phase 3 Adjuvant Trial in Ocular Melanoma (ATOM), with patients now enrolling in the United States. The Company estimates the HLA-A*02:01 positive, high-risk adjuvant uveal melanoma patient population could represent up to 1,200 patients in the US and Europe. PRAME portfolio Brenetafusp is the Company’s lead PRAME-A02 ImmTAC bispecific candidate. Brenetafusp is being evaluated in combination with nivolumab in a Phase 3 registrational trial (PRISM-MEL-301) in patients with first-line, advanced cutaneous melanoma, and in a Phase 1/2 clinical trial as monotherapy and in combination across multiple tumor types, including ovarian cancer and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). PRISM-MEL-301 – First PRAME Phase 3 clinical trial with brenetafusp in first-line advanced cutaneous melanoma The Company continues with 1:1 randomization of HLA-A*02:01 positive, first-line, advanced or metastatic cutaneous melanoma patients to brenetafusp 160 mcg + nivolumab or a control arm of either nivolumab or nivolumab + relatlimab.Despite approved therapies, there remains an unmet need for improved progression-free survival and OS in the first-line setting where there is the potential to address an estimated 10,000 HLA-A*02:01 positive patients across US and Europe. Phase 1/2 clinical trials of brenetafusp and IMC-P115C (PRAME-A02 Half-Life Extended) in multiple solid tumors Melanoma The Phase 1/2 data, presented at the 2026 ASCO meeting, showed improved clinical activity of brenetafusp monotherapy, in patients with heavily-pretreated advanced melanoma, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 17% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 67%, in the 160 mcg versus 40 mcg cohort (ORR 6% and DCR 56%), despite patients on the high dose having less favorable prognostic factors. These data support the selected dose for the ongoing Phase 3 PRISM-MEL-301 trial in first-line advanced melanoma.The median OS for brenetafusp monotherapy of 14.3 months was similar to other Phase 1/2 trials of combination therapies in heavily pre-treated patients with advanced melanoma, including studies with autologous cell therapies.Brenetafusp in combination with pembrolizumab (n=6) demonstrated promising clinical activity with ORR of 33% and DCR 67% in patients with PD1 primary resistance (defined as progressive disease within 6 months of starting first PD1-based regimen).Brenetafusp was generally well tolerated as monotherapy and in combination with pembrolizumab. Other tumors and IMC-P115C After observing an initial brenetafusp monotherapy signal in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer (PROC), the Company is evaluating, as part of an ongoing Phase 1/2 trial, combination therapy with bevacizumab in earlier lines, including platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer (PSOC). In the same trial, the Company continues signal detection across multiple metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cohorts, including combinations with standards of care in earlier-line NSCLC.The Company is enrolling patients in the Phase 1 dose escalation trial evaluating IMC-P115C in patients with multiple solid tumors.The Company expects to present Phase 1/2 data from both trials in the second half of 2026. ImmTAV candidates for a functional cure in infectious diseases The Company’s bispecific TCR technology platform has the potential to offer a new approach for the treatment of certain chronic infections by eliminating evidence of remaining virus in circulation after the patient stops taking medication – known as a ‘functional cure’. The Company is studying an investigational candidate for people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Phase 1/2 trial of IMC-M113V (Gag-A02) for people living with HIV In July 2026, at the International AIDS Society meeting in Rio de Janeiro, the Company presented translational data, from the first three cohorts of the multiple ascending dose part of the Phase 1/2 trial, demonstrating that IMC-M113V induces robust type I and II interferon-associated immune programs, with stronger induction in participants who maintained viral control after treatment interruption.The data also showed that, in addition to previously demonstrated direct killing of HIV-infected cells, IMC-M113V redirection of T cells results in induction of a robust interferon-associated immune program that may contribute to post-treatment viral control.The Company completed enrollment of additional patients at higher dose cohorts, up to 1200 mcg, as part of the multiple ascending dose (MAD) part of the Phase 1/2 trial. Analysis of the new data is ongoing with results planned to be shared early next year. Tissue-specific down modulation of the immune system for autoimmune diseasesThe key differentiator of the ImmTAAI platform is down modulation of the immune system in a tissue-specific manner. The candidates achieve this by suppressing pathogenic T cells via PD1 receptor agonism only when tethered to the target tissue. Clinical trial sites for the Phase 1 trial with IMC-S118AI are open, and the Company expects the first type 1 diabetes patient to be dosed in the coming weeks.The Company, in collaboration with the University of Florida, published preclinical data in Science Advances demonstrating that in live human pancreas tissue slices from a recent-onset type 1 diabetes donor, IMC-S118AI selectively binds to HLA-A*02:01-positive beta cells and suppresses autoreactive T cell activity around islets, helping protect beta cells and preserve insulin secretion.IMC-S118AI is designed to bind pre-pro-insulin on beta cells of the pancreas and deliver a PD-1 agonist signal to nearby auto-reactive T cells thereby protecting the pancreatic beta cells from T cell attack while preserving beta cell mass.The Company plans to file a CTA or investigational new drug (IND) application in the second half of 2026 for its second autoimmune program, IMC-U120AI (CD1a x PD1), which is designed to target a variety of dermatological diseases including atopic dermatitis. ### About ImmTAC® molecules for cancerImmunocore’s proprietary T cell receptor (TCR) technology generates a novel class of bispecific biologics called ImmTAC (Immune mobilizing monoclonal TCRs Against Cancer) molecules that are designed to redirect the immune system to recognize and kill cancerous cells. ImmTAC molecules are soluble TCRs engineered to recognize intracellular cancer antigens with ultra-high affinity and selectively kill these cancer cells via an anti-CD3 immune-activating effector function. Based on the demonstrated mechanism of T cell infiltration into human tumors, the ImmTAC mechanism of action holds the potential to treat hematologic and solid tumors, regardless of mutational burden or immune infiltration, including immune “cold” low mutation rate tumors. About ImmTAV® molecules and infectious diseases ImmTAV (Immune mobilizing monoclonal TCRs Against Virus) molecules are novel bispecifics that are designed to enable the immune system to recognize and eliminate virally infected cells. Immunocore is advancing a clinical candidate, aiming to achieve sustained control of HIV after people living with HIV stop anti-retroviral therapy (ART), without the risk of virological relapse or onward transmission. This is known as ‘functional cure’. About ImmTAAITM molecules and autoimmune diseases ImmTAAI (Immune mobilizing monoclonal TCRs Against AutoImmune disease) molecules are novel bispecifics that are designed for tissue-specific down modulation of the immune system. When tethered to the tissue of interest, ImmTAAI candidates suppress pathogenic T cells via PD1 receptor agonism. The Company is currently advancing two candidates for autoimmune diseases, including type 1 diabetes and inflammatory dermatological diseases. About TEBE-AM – Phase 3 registrational trial with tebentafusp in previously treated advanced cutaneous melanoma The trial is randomizing patients with second-line or later advanced cutaneous melanoma who have progressed on an anti-PD1, received prior ipilimumab and, if applicable, received a BRAF kinase inhibitor. Patients are randomized to one of three arms, including tebentafusp – as monotherapy or in combination with an anti-PD1 – or a control arm. The primary endpoint is overall survival. About PRISM-MEL-301 (NCT06112314) – Phase 3 trial with brenetafusp (IMC-F106C, PRAME-A02) in 1L advanced cutaneous melanoma The Phase 3 registrational trial is randomizing HLA-A*02:01-positive patients with previously untreated, advanced or metastatic cutaneous melanoma, to brenetafusp 160 mcg + nivolumab or a control arm of either nivolumab or nivolumab + relatlimab. The primary endpoint of the trial is progression free survival (PFS) by blinded independent central review (BICR), with secondary endpoints of overall survival (OS) and overall response rate (ORR). About the ATOM Phase 3 trial The EORTC-sponsored Phase 3 clinical trial is randomizing HLA-A*02:01-positive patients with high-risk primary uveal melanoma after definitive treatment, by surgery or radiotherapy, and no evidence of metastatic disease on imaging. The trial will randomize patients 1:1 to one of two arms: tebentafusp as monotherapy or observation. The primary endpoint of the trial is relapse-free survival (RFS), with secondary objectives of overall survival and safety and tolerability of tebentafusp. Exploratory objectives include the comparison of the health-related quality of life between the treatment arms and the evaluation of the role of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) as a biomarker for the presence of residual disease. About the IMC-F106C-101 Phase 1/2 trial IMC-F106C-101 is a first-in-human, Phase 1/2 dose escalation trial in patients with multiple solid tumors, including non-small cell lung and ovarian cancers, evaluating brenetafusp in combination arms with standards-of-care. The Phase 1 dose escalation trial was designed to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD), as well as to evaluate the safety, preliminary anti-tumor activity and pharmacokinetics of IMC-F106C (brenetafusp), a bispecific protein built on Immunocore’s ImmTAC technology, and the Company’s first molecule to target the PRAME antigen. About Uveal Melanoma Uveal melanoma is a rare and aggressive form of melanoma, which affects the eye. This is the most common primary intraocular malignancy in adults and up to 50% of people with uveal melanoma will eventually develop metastatic disease. Unresectable or metastatic uveal melanoma typically has a poor prognosis and had no approved treatment until KIMMTRAK. About Cutaneous Melanoma Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is the most common form of melanoma. It is the most aggressive skin carcinoma and is associated with the vast majority of skin cancer-related mortality. The majority of patients with CM are diagnosed before metastasis but survival remains poor for the large proportion of patients with metastatic disease. Despite recent progress in advanced melanoma therapy, there is still an unmet need for new therapies that improve first-line response rates and duration of response as well as for patients who are refractory to first-line treatments. About KIMMTRAK® KIMMTRAK is a novel bispecific protein comprised of a soluble T cell receptor fused to an anti-CD3 immune-effector function. KIMMTRAK specifically targets gp100, a lineage antigen expressed in melanocytes and melanoma. This is the first molecule developed using Immunocore’s ImmTAC technology platform, designed to redirect and activate T cells to recognize and kill tumor cells. KIMMTRAK has been approved for the treatment of HLA-A*02:01-positive adult patients with unresectable or metastatic uveal melanoma in the United States, European Union, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom. IMPORTANT SAFETY INFORMATION Cytokine Release Syndrome (CRS), which may be serious or life-threatening, occurred in patients receiving KIMMTRAK. Monitor for at least 16 hours following first three infusions and then as clinically indicated. Manifestations of CRS may include fever, hypotension, hypoxia, chills, nausea, vomiting, rash, elevated transaminases, fatigue, and headache. CRS occurred in 89% of patients who received KIMMTRAK, with 0.8% being grade 3 or 4. Ensure immediate access to medications and resuscitative equipment to manage CRS. Ensure patients are euvolemic prior to initiating the infusions. Closely monitor patients for signs or symptoms of CRS following infusions of KIMMTRAK. Monitor fluid status, vital signs, and oxygenation level and provide appropriate therapy. Withhold or discontinue KIMMTRAK depending on persistence and severity of CRS. Skin Reactions Skin reactions, including rash, pruritus, and cutaneous edema occurred in 91% of patients treated with KIMMTRAK. Monitor patients for skin reactions. If skin reactions occur, treat with antihistamine and topical or systemic steroids based on persistence and severity of symptoms. Withhold or permanently discontinue KIMMTRAK depending on the severity of skin reactions. Elevated Liver Enzymes Elevations in liver enzymes occurred in 65% of patients treated with KIMMTRAK. Monitor alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and total blood bilirubin prior to the start of and during treatment with KIMMTRAK. Withhold KIMMTRAK according to severity. Embryo-Fetal Toxicity KIMMTRAK may cause fetal harm. Advise pregnant patients of potential risk to the fetus and patients of reproductive potential to use effective contraception during treatment with KIMMTRAK and 1 week after the last dose. The most common adverse reactions (≥30%) in patients who received KIMMTRAK were cytokine release syndrome, rash, pyrexia, pruritus, fatigue, nausea, chills, abdominal pain, edema, hypotension, dry skin, headache, and vomiting. The most common (≥50%) laboratory abnormalities were decreased lymphocyte count, increased creatinine, increased glucose, increased AST, increased ALT, decreased hemoglobin, and decreased phosphate. For more information, please see full Summary of Product Characteristics (SmPC) or full U.S. Prescribing Information (including BOXED WARNING for CRS). About KIMMTRAKConnect Immunocore is committed to helping patients who need KIMMTRAK obtain access via its KIMMTRAKConnect program. The US program provides services with dedicated nurse case managers who provide personalized support, including educational resources, financial assistance, and site of care coordination. To learn more, visit KIMMTRAKConnect.com or call 844-775-2273. About Immunocore Immunocore is a commercial-stage biotechnology company pioneering the development of a novel class of TCR bispecific immunotherapies called ImmTAX – Immune mobilizing monoclonal TCRs Against X disease – designed to treat a broad range of diseases, including cancer, autoimmune diseases and infectious diseases. Leveraging its proprietary, flexible, off-the-shelf ImmTAX platform, Immunocore is developing a deep pipeline in multiple therapeutic areas, including clinical and pre-clinical programs​ in oncology, infectious diseases, and autoimmune diseases. The Company’s most advanced oncology TCR therapeutic, KIMMTRAK, has been approved for the treatment of HLA-A*02:01-positive adult patients with unresectable or metastatic uveal melanoma in the United States, European Union, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Forward Looking Statements This press release contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as “may”, “will”, “believe”, “expect”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “aim”, “continue”, “target” and similar expressions (as well as other words or expressions referencing future events or circumstances) are intended to identify forward-looking statements. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this press release are forward-looking statements. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the Company’s ability to reach more patients for KIMMTRAK, including continued U.S. community and global market penetration in mUM, the potential expansion into 2L+ advanced cutaneous melanoma, and the potential expansion into adjuvant uveal melanoma; the Company’s ability to grow and advance its clinical pipeline; the estimated size of the patient populations for the Company’s product candidates; expectations regarding the design, progress, timing, enrollment, randomization, scope, expansion, and results of the Company’s and its collaborators’ existing and planned clinical trials; the timing and sufficiency of clinical trial outcomes to support potential approval of any of the Company’s product candidates or those of, or combined with, its collaboration partners; the expected submission of clinical trial applications or investigational new drug applications; the potential regulatory approval, and expected clinical benefits and availability of the Company’s product candidates; and expectations regarding the timing and amount of sales-related rebate payments. Any forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and beliefs of future events and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially and adversely from those set forth in or implied by such forward-looking statements, many of which are beyond the Company’s control. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the impact of worsening macroeconomic conditions, including as a result of health epidemics or pandemics, war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, or global geopolitical tension, on the Company’s business, financial position, strategy and anticipated milestones, including the Company’s ability to conduct ongoing and planned clinical trials; the Company’s ability to obtain a clinical supply of current or future product candidates or commercial supply of KIMMTRAK or any future approved products; the Company’s ability to obtain and maintain regulatory approval of KIMMTRAK and its other product candidates; the Company’s ability and plans in continuing to establish and expand a commercial infrastructure and to successfully launch, market and sell KIMMTRAK and any future approved products; the Company’s ability to successfully expand the approved indications for KIMMTRAK or obtain marketing approval for KIMMTRAK in additional geographies in the future; the delay of any current or planned clinical trials, whether due to patient enrollment delays or otherwise; the Company’s ability to successfully demonstrate the safety and efficacy of its product candidates and gain approval of its product candidates on a timely basis, if at all; competition with respect to market opportunities; unexpected safety or efficacy data observed during preclinical studies or clinical trials; actions of regulatory agencies, which may affect the initiation, timing and progress of clinical trials or future regulatory approval; the Company’s need for and ability to obtain additional funding, on favorable terms or at all, including as a result of worsening macroeconomic conditions, including changes in inflation and interest rates and unfavorable general market conditions, and the impacts thereon of the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, and global geopolitical tension; the Company’s ability to obtain, maintain and enforce intellectual property protection for KIMMTRAK or any of its product candidates it or its collaborators are developing; and the success of the Company’s current and future collaborations, partnerships or licensing arrangements. These and other risks and uncertainties are described in greater detail in the section titled "Risk Factors" in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 25, 2026, as well as discussions of potential risks, uncertainties, and other important factors in the Company’s subsequent filings with the SEC. All information in this press release is as of the date of the release, and the Company undertakes no duty to update this information, except as required by law. Contact Information Immunocore Sébastien Desprez, VP CommunicationsT: +44 (0) 7458030732E: sebastien.desprez@immunocore.comFollow on LinkedIn: @Immunocore Investor RelationsRyan Baker, VP Investor RelationsT: +1 (617) 771 5001 E: ir@immunocore.com Immunocore Holdings plcCondensed Consolidated Statement of OperationsComparison of the Quarters and Year to Date Ended June 30, 2026 and 2025 (In thousands, except share and per share data)(Unaudited) Quarter Ended Year to Date June 30,2026 June 30,2025 June 30,2026 June 30,2025Revenue from sale of therapies, net $115,927 $97,964 $222,604 $191,845Total revenue 115,927 97,964 222,604 191,845Cost of revenue from sale of therapies (1,088) (1,040) (1,522) (1,871)Research and development expense (73,945) (69,008) (135,058) (125,476)Selling, general, & administrative expense (43,890) (42,791) (81,740) (82,989)Income (loss) from operations (2,996) (14,875) 4,284 (18,491)Interest income 3,582 4,271 7,000 8,447Interest expense (3,062) (3,045) (6,113) (6,070)Foreign currency gain (loss) (1,108) (738) 2,741 2,342Other income, net 3,070 4,693 4,846 10,162Net income (loss) before income taxes (514) (9,694) 12,758 (3,610)Income tax expense (294) (606) (595) (1,667)Net income (loss) $(808) $(10,300) $12,163 $(5,277) Basic net income (loss) per share $(0.02) $(0.20) $0.24 $(0.11)Basic weighted-average number of shares outstanding 50,973,830 50,294,205 50,868,252 50,191,018 Diluted net income (loss) per share $(0.02) $(0.20) $0.23 $(0.11)Diluted weighted-average number of shares outstanding 50,973,830 50,294,205 52,903,203 50,191,018 Immunocore Holdings plcCondensed Consolidated Balance SheetsAs of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025(In thousands)(Unaudited) June 30, 2026 December 31, 2025ASSETS Current assets Cash and cash equivalents$484,920 $467,709Marketable securities 395,291 396,444Accounts receivable, net 95,350 73,977Prepaid expenses and other current assets 67,692 51,870Inventory, net 7,791 6,742Total current assets 1,051,044 996,742Property and equipment, net 12,863 11,462Operating lease right of use assets, net 37,020 38,783Other non-current assets 18,495 20,282Total assets$1,119,422 $1,067,269 Liabilities and shareholders’ equity Current liabilities Accounts payable$26,319 $24,364Accrued expenses and other current liabilities 206,400 219,744Deferred revenue, current 573 583Operating lease liabilities, current 1,906 2,006Total current liabilities 235,198 246,697Accrued expenses, non-current 26,883 —Deferred revenue, non-current 4,490 4,858Operating lease liabilities, non-current 38,847 41,556Interest-bearing loans and borrowings 394,206 393,125Total liabilities$699,624 $686,236 Shareholders' equity Ordinary shares 138 136Deferred shares 1 1Additional paid-in capital 1,273,101 1,240,255Accumulated deficit (819,112) (831,275)Accumulated other comprehensive loss (34,330) (28,084)Total shareholders' equity 419,798 381,033Total liabilities and shareholders' equity$1,119,422 $1,067,269 Immunocore Holdings plcSummary Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash FlowsFor the Six Months Ended June 30, 2026 and 2025(In thousands)(Unaudited) 2026 2025 Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period $467,709 $455,731Net cash provided by operating activities 2,153 26,399Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities 3,433 (20,712)Net cash provided by financing activities 17,141 6,221Net foreign exchange difference on cash held (5,516) 20,294Cash and cash equivalents at end of period $484,920 $487,933

一则未经当事人证实的传闻 8月2日英国《金融时报》曝出阿斯利康和百时美施贵宝高层近数月一直在就两家公司合并开展初步洽谈，如果消息成真，这对全球医药产业界来说无疑的超级重磅的行动。除模糊的传闻之外，截至当前两家公司均拒绝发表任何评论，没有任何公告。媒体报道用词为explore（探索、探讨），并非已经达成框架协议。谈判随时可以暂停、破裂，不存在时间表。鉴于当时双方在全球医药界的显赫地位，这条信息足够重磅。 何以重磅？ 按照2026年8月2日是总市值和2025年全球大型医药公司的营收和利润排名看，阿斯利康以总市值2631亿美元，位列全球第八大医药公司，而百时美施贵宝以1334亿美元位居第12位，如果它们合并将会诞生一个市值超过4000亿美元（第四）、年营收超1000亿美元（第一）的超级大巨头公司。本次合并案的优势方是阿斯利康，可以预见全球的医药格局将会显著改变。 阿斯利康的现状及未来战略 阿斯利康是全球领先的业务管线均衡型稳健增长的大型医药公司，肿瘤业务具有非常强的竞争力，成为增长核心支柱，产品梯队呈现“成熟慢病药承压、新一代肿瘤创新药接力、ADC等前沿资产开启放量”的生命周期格局。 从核心财务指标来看，阿斯利康2026年上半年实现总营收306.72亿美元，产品销售收入288.96亿美元，同比提升5%；盈利端表现更为亮眼，核心每股收益达到5.21美元，同比增长11%，经营性现金流充沛。肿瘤板块营收141.24亿美元，同比增长15%，贡献公司46%总收入，成为第一增长曲线；罕见病板块收入同比上涨11%，呼吸与免疫板块稳步增长9%；与之相对，心血管、肾脏及代谢（CVRM）板块受核心产品专利到期冲击，收入同比下滑12%。 美国作为第一大单一市场实现8%的稳健增长，目前占总收入比重接近45%，也是公司未来战略核心阵地；中国市场上半年营收35.10亿美元，同比下降5%，承压主要源于慢病仿制药竞争、医保价格压力，标志中国市场告别过去粗放式增长阶段。公司管理层维持全年业绩指引，预期2026年固定汇率下总收入实现中高个位数增长、核心每股收益达成低双位数增长，长期锚定2030年全球总收入突破800亿美元的战略目标。 在售产品矩阵方面，不同品种所处生命周期差异显著，竞争格局冷暖分明。成熟慢病板块核心产品达格列净（Farxiga）依旧是公司销售额最高单品，上半年收入39.98亿美元，但在美国专利到期后仿制药持续侵蚀份额，营收同比下滑11%，已经步入生命周期后段，未来将逐步由增长支柱转变为稳定现金流来源；抗血小板药物替格瑞洛同样持续面临仿制药竞争压力，慢病板块整体进入存量收缩周期。肿瘤板块构成当前增长基本盘，三代EGFR抑制剂奥希替尼（Tagrisso）上半年销售额37.75亿美元，同比增长6%，依托非小细胞肺癌一线、术后辅助双重适应症，构建坚实护城河，但市场持续受到新一代EGFR靶向药冲击，处于生命周期成熟期；PD-L1抑制剂度伐利尤单抗（Imfinzi）是当前增速最强的重磅产品，上半年收入35.48亿美元，同比大涨29%，凭借肺癌、肝癌、胆道癌多一线适应症持续拓展，联合疗法临床方案不断丰富，仍处在快速成长阶段。ADC管线是阿斯利康中长期最重要增长引擎，与第一三共合作的德曲妥珠单抗（Enhertu）持续多癌种拓展，上半年销售规模逼近30亿美元，HER2低表达适应症全面打开市场空间；另一款TROP2 ADC德达博妥单抗（Datroway）收入高速攀升，双ADC组合进入放量早期；此外奥拉帕利、AKT抑制剂卡匹色替、血液瘤药物Calquence形成肿瘤多元化产品集群，分散单一品种风险。罕见病、呼吸免疫板块中，Tezspire、Wainua等创新专科药竞争格局优良，壁垒稳固，持续贡献稳定增量。整体来看，阿斯利康已经完成重心转移，增长动力全面由传统慢病药物切换至肿瘤、罕见病创新药，产品梯队最大风险来自慢病板块持续萎缩，最大机遇来自ADC、新一代肿瘤靶向药的商业化兑现。 总体来说，阿斯利康的在手产品正处于当打之年的快速成长期。 在未来管线储备层面，阿斯利康管线高度聚焦肿瘤、呼吸免疫、罕见病、心血管代谢四大核心赛道，主动剥离神经科学等成功率偏低、投入产出比有限的领域，实现研发资源集中投放。肿瘤管线为重中之重，拥有超过60个在研项目，III期临床项目储备充足，重点覆盖新一代内分泌治疗药物camizestrant、多款ADC拓展适应症、DDR通路抑制剂、CLDN18.2靶向药物、肿瘤免疫联合方案；持续深化与第一三共的ADC战略合作，推进多款新一代DXd平台ADC进入临床。代谢领域重点布局GLP-1系列资产，通过自主研发与外部BD补齐减重、糖尿病赛道布局，应对全球代谢疾病药物热潮。呼吸免疫管线核心资产IL-33单抗tozorakimab顺利完成III期临床，有望成为慢阻肺领域新重磅品种；罕见病持续推进淀粉样变性等First-in-class疗法。同时公司将AI药物研发上升至战略层级，通过收购、合作搭建全链条AI新药发现平台，提升早期研发成功率。管线结构上形成清晰梯队：短期依靠已上市肿瘤药物拓展适应症贡献增长，中期由多款III期新药支撑接力，长期依托ADC、细胞治疗、小分子创新药构筑持续创新能力，但风险在于部分大型III期临床结果存在不确定性，临床失败会直接影响增长预期。 阿斯利康中长期核心战略是打造全球领先的专科生物制药企业，摆脱对成熟慢病药物依赖，冲刺2030年800亿美元营收目标，核心实现路径分为四大维度。 第一，区域战略“深耕美国、重构中国、全球化均衡布局”，计划至2030年在美国投入500亿美元建设研发与生产基地，提升美国市场收入占比至50%，对冲通胀削减法案药价谈判风险、保障供应链安全；中国市场从销售驱动转向创新合作驱动，搭建全球研发中心，通过BD合作引进本土创新管线。 第二，研发战略持续聚焦四大优势赛道，执行“研发瘦身”，退出非核心领域，持续加码ADC、肿瘤免疫、自免、代谢前沿赛道，坚持自主研发+BD并购并举，持续通过授权、收购补齐管线短板。 第三，商业化战略依托肿瘤专科优势打造一体化学术推广团队，强化创新药全球同步申报，加速创新药全球上市节奏。 第四，资本配置策略保持平衡，优先保障研发投入，择机开展战略性并购，审慎控制财务杠杆，同时回馈股东。整体战略的内在挑战在于，慢病老药下滑速度快于预期，管线重磅新药商业化兑现存在时间差，存在阶段性增长缺口，公司需要依靠有机增长或大型并购补齐增长短板。 中国因素在阿斯利康未来战略中的角色与位置 在阿斯利康战略转型的蓝图中，中国市场的定位已经从传统单一销售市场升级为“在华创新、服务全球（In China, For Global）”的全球研发策源地、亚太制造枢纽、前沿管线外部BD核心来源。面对国内医保控费、集采持续挤压成熟慢病药物盈利空间的外部环境，阿斯利康调整在华发展路径，由过去依靠成熟药品商业化销售，转向“本土基础设施重资产投资+本土生物科技企业管线授权合作+产业生态平台孵化”三位一体布局；一方面夯实本地化生产、临床研发底座，保障成熟产品持续供应，另一方面依托大规模BD交易快速补齐肿瘤、代谢、呼吸免疫三大赛道管线短板，对冲自身内部研发产出节奏波动，支撑肿瘤、ADC、GLP-1、新一代靶向药等核心赛道扩张，同时借助中国创新资产实现全球管线扩容。2026年初公司正式官宣，计划至2030年在中国累计投入超过1000亿元人民币（折合150亿美元），覆盖药物早期发现、全球多中心临床、本地化生产制造、细胞治疗、放射性偶联药物（RDC）等前沿赛道，所有投资与合作举措均深度服务其聚焦四大疾病领域、优化产品生命周期、平滑专利悬崖的顶层战略。 在重资产自建投资板块，阿斯利康持续完善全国研发与生产基础设施网络。研发端，继上海全球战略研发中心落成运营后，阿斯利康规划未来五年投入25亿美元在北京建设全球第六座、国内第二座全球战略研发中心，选址北京亦庄生物医药园，搭建AI药物研发与转化医学实验室，扩充至1700名研发人员，聚焦肿瘤小分子、免疫疗法、代谢疾病创新分子的早期发现，同步联动北大肿瘤医院开展临床转化合作，承接大量全球多中心临床试验。生产制造层面形成多点布局：无锡生产基地累计持续加码投入，2024年落地总投资4.75亿美元小分子新药智能制造工厂，作为灯塔工厂向全球70余个国家供应成品药；泰州生产基地累计总投资3.5亿美元，重点生产达格列净等心血管代谢核心产品；青岛吸入气雾剂基地总投资8.9亿美元，瞄准呼吸领域核心产品线本地化生产，预计2028年投产；同步推进上海临港细胞疗法商业化基地、广州放射性偶联药物（RDC）生产基地建设，补齐细胞治疗、核药两大下一代疗法的本地化产能，支撑长期前沿药物商业化落地。产业孵化层面，阿斯利康与无锡地方政府共建无锡国际生命科学创新园，联合中金资本设立阿斯利康中金医疗产业基金，定向投资国内早期生物医药初创企业，提前锁定潜在管线合作标的，构建持续可挖掘的本土创新生态。 依托基础设施底座，阿斯利康密集开展和国内创新药企的大型管线授权战略合作，交易模式分为“海外独家权益授权、中外市场共同开发商业化、平台技术联合研发”三类，精准补齐公司管线薄弱环节。肿瘤赛道作为阿斯利康第一增长曲线，相关BD交易体量最大：2026年7月，阿斯利康与迪哲医药达成舒沃替尼全球独家授权，交易总额上限15亿美元，包含6亿美元首付款，获得这款EGFR 20外显子插入突变靶向药全球开发与商业化权益，补强奥希替尼无法覆盖的肺癌细分人群；2026年1月，阿斯利康与加科思签订泛KRAS抑制剂JAB-23E73合作协议，整体交易最高20.15亿美元（1亿美元首付款），阿斯利康持有中国以外全球独家权益，双方在中国市场联合开发推广，补齐KRAS靶点肿瘤管线短板。代谢疾病赛道是阿斯利康重点加码的第二大布局方向，用于弥补心血管慢病药物持续下滑带来的收入缺口：2026年1月底，阿斯利康与石药集团达成长效多肽创新药战略合作，涵盖长效GLP-1/GIP双靶点激动剂在内8款多肽项目，潜在总交易规模上限185亿美元，首付款12亿美元，授权范围为全球除中国内地及港澳台区域以外市场；更早的2023年11月，阿斯利康与诚益生物合作口服小分子GLP-1候选药物ECC5004，交易总额最高20.1亿美元，首付款1.85亿美元，通过长短效、口服/注射型多管线并行，全面布局减重、糖尿病赛道，直面礼来、诺和诺德竞争。呼吸与自免领域贴合阿斯利康传统优势赛道持续补强，2026年7月与中国生物制药旗下正大天晴达成吸入式PDE3/4抑制剂TQC3721合作，最高交易金额21亿美元、首付款2亿美元，获得海外市场独家权益，扩充慢阻肺创新管线；2025年3月，阿斯利康与和铂医药达成多特异性抗体全球合作，交易上限45.75亿美元，共同开发肿瘤与自身免疫疾病新一代双抗、多抗药物，同时双方在北京共建创新实验室落地联合研发。除此以外，阿斯利康持续深化和石药集团多层次长期合作，继多肽项目后，2026年7月再度达成肾病siRNA疗法合作，交易规模最高1.77亿美元，借助本土siRNA平台拓展肾脏疾病管线。 百时美施贵宝（BMS）的专利悬崖困局 反观当事的另一方，情况就没有这样乐观。 2026年上半年百时美施贵宝实现全球净营收244.62亿美元，同比增长4%；盈利结构呈现鲜明分化，公司内部将产品线划分为成长型资产与传统成熟资产，上半年成长创新产品销售收入64.2亿美元，同比增长12%，而传统成熟产品收入同比下滑6%，清晰体现新旧动能切换阵痛。调整后核心每股收益6.62美元，同比小幅提升，经营性现金流保持稳健，足以支撑持续研发投入、分红以及潜在BD并购，但资产负债端仍遗留新基大额并购带来的债务压力，大规模杠杆收购空间存在约束。 分板块收入结构上，肿瘤业务（实体瘤免疫+血液肿瘤）贡献总营收42%，为第一大业务板块；心血管抗凝药物构成第二大收入来源；免疫学、罕见贫血、神经精神药物作为新兴增长板块体量尚有限。区域结构具备鲜明美国本土特征，美国市场贡献总收入65%以上，是核心盈利阵地，但持续受到美国《通胀削减法案（IRA）》药价谈判冲击；中国市场营收体量显著小于阿斯利康，同时面临医保谈判、集采压力，更多定位为管线临床验证与区域商业化市场，而非全球研发策源地。公司上调2026全年营收指引至490–500亿美元，调整后EPS区间6.75–7.00美元，但管理层坦诚，2027–2029年将迎来营收阶段性下行周期，核心风险来自两大超级单品专利到期。整体财务底色总结：现金流充裕、盈利韧性尚可，但未来三年收入下行压力明确，内生增长不足以完全对冲专利到期缺口，存在较强外延整合诉求。 在售产品矩阵生命周期错落分明，企业最大经营矛盾集中于多款百亿级重磅药物集中进入生命周期末端。成熟现金流资产板块，阿哌沙班（Eliquis，与辉瑞共同推广）为公司当前销售额最高单品，上半年全球销售超78亿美元，短期依旧维持稳健增长，但基础化合物专利2026年到期，依托制剂、用途专利保护，欧美市场仿制药将自2028–2029年集中入市，长期销售规模存在腰斩预期，同时已纳入美国IRA首轮价格谈判，利润率持续承压；血液瘤老牌支柱来那度胺（Revlimid）、泊马度胺（Pomalyst）已经遭遇仿制药冲击，营收连续大幅下滑，正式步入生命周期尾声，曾经的利润基石快速收缩。肿瘤免疫板块，纳武利尤单抗Opdivo（PD-1）上半年销售接近48亿美元，作为全球首款PD-1抑制剂，拥有覆盖十余类实体瘤广泛适应症，搭配伊匹木单抗Yervoy形成行业最为成熟的双免疫联合方案，Opdualag（纳武利尤单抗+Relatlimab）持续贡献增量；但Opdivo美国核心专利将于2028年到期，实体瘤赛道面临Keytruda、阿斯利康度伐利尤单抗持续竞争，单纯依靠现有适应症拓展增长空间有限，公司寄希望于皮下注射剂型Opdivo Qvantig延长产品生命周期。成长梯队资产构成未来中期基本盘：两款商业化CAR-T疗法Breyanzi、Abecma构建全球稀缺的双CAR-T产品矩阵，牢牢巩固复发淋巴瘤、多发性骨髓瘤治疗高地，处于稳步放量阶段；罗特西普Reblozyl深耕贫血罕见病赛道，竞争格局优良，具备长期稳定增长潜力；肥厚型心肌病药物Camzyos、银屑病自免药物Sotyktu（氘可来昔替尼）、多发性硬化药物Ozanimod持续高速放量，打造心血管、自免第二条增长曲线；新型精神疾病药物Cobenfy处于商业化早期。横向对比阿斯利康产品结构可以清晰看到差异：阿斯利康增长主力为实体瘤靶向药、ADC，慢病下滑缓慢；BMS优势集中血液瘤，缺乏自主ADC、新一代实体瘤靶向平台，实体瘤管线高度依赖Opdivo，同时承受更大规模、更集中的专利悬崖冲击。 放眼未来管线储备，百时美施贵宝管线聚焦五大方向：血液肿瘤、实体瘤免疫、心血管、自身免疫、神经科学，资源高度倾斜血液瘤赛道，管线呈现“血液瘤管线纵深极强、实体瘤前沿技术存在短板”的结构性特征。血液瘤是BMS研发绝对核心，依托CELMoD平台打造Mezigdomide、Iberdomide、Golcadomide一系列新一代蛋白降解剂，目标接力来那度胺，实现骨髓瘤产品线迭代，多条III期临床推进中；同时持续拓展CAR-T、通用型细胞疗法、双特异性抗体、靶向偶联药物，维持血液肿瘤长期领先优势。实体瘤管线方面，现阶段以Opdivo各类联合疗法适应症拓展为主，自主研发ADC项目数量偏少，实体瘤小分子靶向管线储备有限，是当前最明显短板；通过收购RayzeBio布局放射性配体疗法（RPT），试图开辟实体瘤新赛道，弥补ADC缺位。心血管领域重点推进新一代口服凝血因子XI抑制剂Milvexian，目标承接阿哌沙班专利到期后的市场空白；自免赛道持续拓展TYK2抑制剂、细胞治疗适应症；神经科学管线依托收购Karuna获得KarXT，布局精神分裂症、阿尔茨海默激越等适应症，开辟全新赛道。在研发模式上，BMS执行“后期管线依靠内部推进、早期前沿技术大量依靠并购与BD补齐”策略，近年连续完成Mirati、RayzeBio、Karuna等中型收购，弥补平台短板；同时加大AI赋能药物发现，提升早期研发转化效率。管线核心风险在于：实体瘤创新平台储备不足，Opdivo联合疗法临床逐渐进入红海竞争；多个关键III期临床结果存在不确定性，如果CELMoD系列药物临床不及预期，将直接冲击公司跨越专利悬崖的核心逻辑。 恒瑞医药与百利天恒：百时美施贵宝的中国因素 在中国区域布局层面，相较于阿斯利康上千亿级重资产研发制造投入、多点布局生产基地的模式，百时美施贵宝在华策略更偏“轻资产商业化+大型管线BD合作”，依托合作模式落地创新。 2026年5月与恒瑞医药达成史诗级战略合作，覆盖13项肿瘤、血液、自免管线项目，首付款6亿美元，潜在总交易上限152亿美元，采取双向权益划分模式，BMS获得恒瑞多款资产海外权益，同时向恒瑞输出自身自免管线中国权益，一次性补强实体瘤早期管线； 2023年12 月百时美施贵宝与中国创新药企百利天恒围绕BL-B01D1（iza-bren，伦康依隆妥单抗，EGFR×HER3 双抗ADC）达成的全球战略合作，成为BMS 中国布局中至关重要的一块战略拼图，。本次合作潜在交易总额最高84 亿美元，包含8 亿美元首付款、最高5 亿美元近期里程碑、71 亿美元开发、注册及销售里程碑；权益划分形成差异化安排，百利天恒完整保留中国大陆区域独家开发、生产与商业化权益，中美市场采取分层协作模式，美国市场由双方共同开发商业化，全球除中美以外区域由百时美施贵宝独家推进。这项合作首先补齐其全球管线缺乏具备全球竞争力的新一代ADC 产品的最大短板。 阿斯利康与百时美施贵宝若完成合并，对恒瑞医药、石药集团、百利天恒、康诺亚差异化前景推演 一旦两家药企成功合并组建全新巨型创新药企集团，新主体将同步承接阿斯利康、百时美施贵宝全部对外战略合作资产，启动自上而下的管线梳理、研发资源重分配与全球战略优先级调整。四家国内企业分别绑定合并双方其中一方，合作赛道、协议权益结构、项目成熟度存在显著差异，因此面临机遇、风险的权重完全分化；叠加潜在反垄断审查、内部管线竞争、整合期组织动荡三大变量，各家长期预期将走向截然不同的路径。 恒瑞医药：远期里程碑预期下修 恒瑞当前与百时美施贵宝达成总额最高152亿美元双向战略合作，覆盖13项肿瘤、血液瘤、自免早期管线，采用双向权益分割模式：百时美施贵宝获得恒瑞源头创新品种除大中华区以外全球权益，恒瑞获得百时美施贵宝4款自免管线中国区域独家权益。从底层逻辑来看，本次合作原本是百时美施贵宝补齐实体瘤管线、丰富早期创新储备的核心抓手，但在合并落地之后，合作格局的不确定性显著抬升。风险层面，新集团内部将同时拥有阿斯利康庞大实体瘤管线、BMS成熟血液瘤与免疫资产，肿瘤赛道管线密度大幅提升，恒瑞输出的多数早期项目将直面集团内部自有资产竞争。在超大型并购的整合惯例之下，管理层倾向于优先保障中后期核心资产资源投放，部分临床前、I期早期合作项目存在放缓临床投入、重新谈判合作条款的可能性；同时，双方合作包含大量联合研发项目，组织架构融合带来跨团队沟通摩擦，会拉长项目推进周期。机遇层面同样具备支撑因素，本次交易为双向授权，恒瑞手握多款BMS自免管线在中国市场商业化权益，这部分资产不受海外管线策略调整直接冲击，国内商业化价值具备独立性；此外，新集团同时拥有PD-1（纳武利尤单抗）与PD-L1（度伐利尤单抗）两大免疫平台，与恒瑞输出的靶向、双抗资产存在大量联合疗法开发潜力，如果管理层选择构建开放外部协同生态，恒瑞管线能够嵌入集团丰富的免疫联合临床矩阵，加速全球临床推进。中长期情景可以划分两种路径：乐观情景下，后期潜力项目维持原有开发节奏，双向授权持续落地，恒瑞持续兑现里程碑与海外销售分成；谨慎情景下，部分早期项目开发优先级下调，谈判窗口打开，长期交易预期收缩。整体而言，恒瑞属于风险与机遇并存，合作价值取决于新集团对于外部早期管线的定位，短期已交割的6亿美元首付款具备法律保障不受影响，但远期海量里程碑预期存在下修可能性。 石药集团：冲击有限 石药集团重磅BD合作直接签约阿斯利康，围绕长效多肽平台、多款GLP-1相关创新资产达成最高185亿美元授权协议，阿斯利康取得大中华区以外全球独家权益，石药完整保留国内市场开发、商业化权利。相较于绑定BMS的企业，石药受到合并带来的直接冲击相对有限，核心原因在于该合作赛道与百时美施贵宝现有优势领域错位：阿斯利康将代谢疾病、GLP-1布局视作对冲慢病管线下滑的关键增长方向，而百时美施贵宝管线重心集中于肿瘤、自免、心血管抗凝，长效多肽减重、糖尿病赛道不存在集团内部直接竞品，合并后新集团维持代谢赛道战略投入的意愿较强。确定性最强的基础在于，12亿美元首付款已经全额兑付，协议具备成熟法律保护框架，大中华区权益永久归属石药，不受海外商业化主体变更干扰，国内市场商业化规划可以独立推进。潜在积极变化在于，合并完成后新集团现金流规模进一步扩容，有条件加大全球多肽管线临床投入，加速SYH2082等核心项目海外临床开发，更早触发阶段性开发里程碑；同时依托BMS成熟的美国商业化团队，进一步强化GLP-1产品在美国市场学术推广能力。唯一需要警惕的边际风险在于，整合阶段新集团存在压缩非肿瘤赛道远期预算的可能性，如果未来全球代谢赛道竞争持续白热化，不排除双方重新协商开发投入节奏，但发生合作终止的概率较低。综合判断，石药是四家企业中基本面预期最为稳定的标的，合作主线不会因为合并发生根本性颠覆，主要变量仅在于海外临床推进速度的快慢。 百利天恒：核心产品出海前景波动性加大 公司核心资产BL-B01D1（EGFR×HER3双抗ADC）授权给百时美施贵宝，潜在交易规模最高84亿美元，权益结构具备极强特殊性：百利天恒牢牢锁定中国大陆独家开发、生产、商业化权益；美国市场双方利润共享、成本共担；其余海外市场由BMS独家推进。这项合作原本是弥补BMS ADC赛道短板的核心布局，而阿斯利康手握与第一三共合作的Enhertu、Datroway两大成熟ADC，因此合并之后，集团内部随即形成多条ADC管线同台竞争格局，也让百利天恒的合作前景出现最为复杂的博弈局面。负面约束十分清晰：新集团同时拥有多款差异化ADC平台，资源分配成为核心矛盾。阿斯利康现有DXd平台ADC已经进入商业化放量阶段，资源倾斜具备天然惯性，BL-B01D1作为外部引进的双抗ADC，在临床联合方案布局、全球推广预算分配上可能处于相对弱势，临床推进节奏存在放缓风险；市场也会担忧新集团为避免内部同质化竞争，重新洽谈分成、开发权责条款。但同时存在不可忽视的协同红利：全球范围内同时拥有PD-1、PD-L1、多款ADC的企业稀缺，BL-B01D1可以分别和纳武利尤单抗、度伐利尤单抗开展双重免疫联合临床，形成独一无二的临床开发组合，极大放大药物临床价值；并且协议明确中国大陆权益完全归属百利天恒，无论海外策略如何调整，公司国内商业化价值不受侵蚀，具备稳固安全垫。除此以外，交易8亿美元首付款已经完成支付，具备不可撤销属性，短期财务收益锁定。情景推演层面，若新集团选择采取差异化管线定位，区分单靶点ADC与双抗ADC适应症布局，则项目持续稳步推进；若管理层优先聚焦成熟DXd平台管线，BL-B01D1全球开发节奏将会承压。对比其余三家企业，百利天恒最大特征是国内业务不受扰动，海外管线预期波动弹性最大。 康诺亚生物：风险端主要来自管线重叠 核心资产CMG901（CLDN18.2 ADC）通过合资公司全球独家授权阿斯利康，交易总额上限超11.6亿美元，目前全球III期临床已经读出阳性关键数据，处于商业化前夕。康诺亚合作标的为阿斯利康，赛道归属实体瘤ADC、消化道肿瘤领域，合并之后面临集团内部管线格局重塑。风险端主要来自管线重叠：新集团汇集阿斯利康CMG901、BMS未来引进的BL-B01D1，形成多款实体瘤ADC并行格局，在临床资源、全球学术推广、市场准入层面形成内部竞争；同时，BMS过往实体瘤ADC自主布局薄弱，缺乏相关商业化经验，合并之后团队融合需要周期，短期可能影响CMG901海外注册与上市筹备进度。与之对应的积极逻辑在于，CMG901是全球进度领先的CLDN18.2靶点ADC，靶点具备独特性，和HER2、EGFR通路ADC不存在直接适应症冲突，具备清晰差异化定位，很难被内部其他资产完全替代；阿斯利康已经持续投入多年推进III期开发，关键临床终点顺利达成，在药物即将迈入商业化的节点，新集团很难主动搁置成熟后期资产，否则将产生巨额沉没成本。长期协同看点集中在联合疗法开发，CMG901可以和纳武利尤单抗、度伐利尤单抗搭配探索胃癌、胆道肿瘤一线联合方案，拓宽适应症边界。总体来看，康诺亚核心项目已经进入临床后期，沉没成本约束决定合作不会出现重大变动，更多影响体现在海外商业化推广的资源投放力度，远期里程碑兑现节奏存在小幅波动可能，发生协议终止属于极低概率事件。 横向对比四家企业可以提炼清晰的分层格局：石药集团依托代谢赛道错位布局、国内权益独立，整体确定性最优；康诺亚核心资产临近商业化、靶点差异化较强，波动幅度温和；恒瑞医药以大量早期双向授权项目为主，远期预期弹性与风险同步放大；百利天恒身处ADC内部竞争赛道，海外业务博弈最为复杂，但国内市场构筑坚实安全边界。除此之外，还有一项贯穿四家企业的共同外部变量需要持续考量：本次巨型合并交易需要通过欧美、中国等全球多地反垄断审查。如果监管机构要求新集团剥离部分肿瘤管线资产，不排除相关合作项目被纳入剥离清单，带来超出预期的扰动；若合并谈判最终中途破裂，所有推演情景均不生效，各家企业将回归原有合作轨道。